Developing a national volcanic risk model framework for Aotearoa New Zealand: current capabilities and future ambitions

Aotearoa New Zealand faces substantial strategic risks from volcanic hazards, prompting keen interest from both central and local government agencies. These agencies are actively seeking improved characterisation of volcanic risk information that meets their present and future needs.

This presentation discusses efforts being undertaken to accelerate, strengthen, and coordinate the development of nationally applicable volcanic risk information through the scoping of a national volcanic risk model. Centrally, this involves developing a framework enabling the transfer of volcanic impact/risk models for the many and varied hazards posed across several different volcanoes and contexts to produce a consistent view of risk across the Aotearoa New Zealand. To facilitate this, we leveraged several major end-to-end volcano related research programmes to integrate existing hazard and risk models into a consistent risk/impact calculation framework using the open- source RiskScape™ engine.

This volcanic risk model framework is used to highlight current capability and critical gaps within and across four case study areas: Auckland Volcanic Field, central Taupō Volcanic Zone, Taranaki, and Tongariro National Park. This analysis informs our current needs, priorities, and ambitions for developing a comprehensive national volcanic risk model, as well as discussions scoping other natural hazard models in a consistent approach for the country.